By Alan McGuinness, political reporter
A former head of the civil service has accused the government of being “neither honest nor open” about the potential impact of a no-deal Brexit.Lord Kerslake, who was in post from 2012 to 2014 and is now a Labour adviser, said “longer, more detailed” documents about the effects of such a scenario have yet to be published by the government.
Calling for their release, he told Sky News: “I think the public have the right to know exactly what the full story is. Not, after all, what is a five-page summary of a much more detailed analysis.”Lord Kerslake was referring to the Operation Yellowhammer document published on Wednesday.
Lord Kerslake is an opponent of a no-deal Brexit who has in the past called for a second referendum
The document was disclosed after opposition MPs defeated the government in a Commons vote on Monday to order its publication.
The summary warns of the possibility of a rise in public disorder, delays lasting three months at Channel crossings, “significant” electricity price rises and impacts on medicine and food supplies.
MPs moved to force the release of the document after excerpts were leaked to The Sunday Times last month.
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Lord Kerslake, an opponent of a no-deal Brexit who has called for a second referendum in the past, said apparent discrepancies between these two versions of the document showed the government was being “neither honest nor open”.
:: Listen to the Daily podcast on Apple Podcasts, Google Podcasts, Spotify, SpreakerHe said: “The leaked document was called the base scenario, which means it could be better or it could be worse.”This document, the same document that’s been published, is called the reasonable worst-case scenario, i.e. it suggests it is the worst possible scenario.”And that I’m afraid is not honest in the way in which it’s been done.”
There could be delays lasting three months at Channel crossings, the document warns
Following the publication of the paper, Michael Gove – the Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster and the government minister in charge of no-deal planning – said: “The document is neither an impact assessment, nor a prediction of what is most likely to happen.”It describes what could occur in a reasonable worst-case scenario, thus providing a deliberately stretching context for government planning to ensure that we are prepared for exit.”This was echoed by Prime Minister Boris Johnson, who said on Thursday that the report was a “worst-case scenario” and that the government has been “massively accelerating” preparations since he took office.
Here is Michael Gove contradicting himself before the exiting the EU select committee last week – admitting Yellowhammer does say “base scenario” after denying it first pic.twitter.com/qxewNsHOfD— Rosamund Urwin (@RosamundUrwin) September 11, 2019
But Lord Kerslake took issue with this, saying: “Well I’m afraid that is also not honest.”This document isn’t that old, it was published in fact, or written, on 2 August, barely a few weeks ago.”It’s hard to believe that the circumstances, even with the acceleration of work, have moved on that much.”
The “reasonable worst-case planning assumptions” of Operation Yellowhammer detail:The worst disruption at Channel crossings might last for up to three months before improvingLorries could face maximum delays of two-and-a-half days before being able to cross the UK borderPossible immigration delays for UK holidaymakers at the Channel Tunnel, ferry crossings and airportsA likelihood of “significant” electricity price rises in Northern IrelandMedicine supplies will be “particularly vulnerable to severe extended delays”A potential reduction in the UK’s ability to prevent animal disease outbreaks due to reduced supplies of veterinary medicinesSupplies of some fresh food will decrease, while supermarket prices may also risePanic buying could increase food supply problemsThe possibility of urgent action to ensure access to clean water if there is a failure in the supply of chemicals – although the likelihood of this is considered “low”Disruption in law enforcement data sharing between the UK and EUConcerns that Gibraltar has not prepared well enough for a no-deal Brexit”Significant amounts” of police time being taken up by protests and a possible rise in public disorderThe risk of disruption to fuel supplies in the South East of EnglandPossible clashes between UK and EU fishing vesselsUK efforts to avoid a hard border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland are “likely to prove unsustainable”.
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